Saudi Arabia

For three years, Saudi Arabia has sought to contain the Houthis while avoiding a return to full-scale war. What happens next turns on what Riyadh decides.

The three countries signed the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" on August 7, uniting Sunni-Muslim US allies concerned about a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire to the Gulf.

Spanish media have already described the move as a "diplomatic crisis with Arab countries," while Colombian media have reported extensively on the wave of condemnations.

The smaller resource base has pushed both countries to lean harder into non-oil sectors such as finance, logistics, and tourism.

Riyadh faces a dilemma: how to deter attacks and protect the ambitious economic vision it is pursuing without becoming entangled in a broader conflict in the region.

Rather than projecting confidence, the deal with Pakistan and Turkey reflects Saudi Arabia’s search for additional security guarantees in the face of Iran’s growing regional influence.

Once Washington greenlights nuclear fuel-making for Saudi Arabia, the spread won’t stop there. Iran will want to follow suit, which could lead to the UAE and Abu Dhabi wanting in on it, too.

Weakening the Houthis – Iran’s strongest proxy left – can alleviate the current pressure on Saudi Arabia, Red Sea shipping, Israel, and the region at large

Cyril Widdershoven, senior advisor at Blue Water Strategy, said that “Gulf leadership increasingly doubts that US power is able actually to prevent missile attacks and drone warfare."

Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan promises collective deterrence, but its first test showed the limits of what that commitment may actually mean.