A month of a shaky ceasefire has provided Tehran the opportunity to husband its resources and begin to think of new tactics and strategy. Iran is now testing the ceasefire to see how far it can push. It has already done this on other fronts in limited ways, for instance, by attacking Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. Now, Iran’s recent attacks on the UAE and threats on shipping show that it feels increasing confidence as time goes by.
The UAE intercepted numerous missiles and drones on Monday, and a key oil port in the UAE was attacked. CNN reported that the UAE used an Israeli air defense system in this recent round of attacks.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been a key mediator between the US and Iran, said that Islamabad "strongly condemns the missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates last night.” This means Iran could be ruffling feathers in a friendly country.
Sharif also said, "It is absolutely essential that the ceasefire be upheld and respected, to allow necessary diplomatic space for dialogue leading to enduring peace and stability in the region."
Iran is likely to portray the attacks as being the fault of the IRGC, as Iran continues to make it seem its internal politics are in chaos.
Maersk, a large shipping company, was able to get one of its vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, BBC reported. Tim Wilkins, managing director at Intertanko, a trade body representing independent tanker owners and operators, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program it was "one vessel that was closely escorted under certain very tight circumstances." This is not going to change much, as other ships are not transiting the straits, for the most part.
In the UAE’s Fujairah, meanwhile, there is concern after the recent Iranian attack. The port is on the Gulf of Oman, and therefore, ships can enter it without going through the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly, the Iranian attack is a message to the UAE about using this port and the oil industry zone at Fujairah. BBC noted that Hossam Zaki, assistant secretary general of the League of Arab States, who has also served multiple postings in the Egyptian foreign ministry, said that “a reported Iranian attack on an oil port in the UAE is a ‘really unfortunate development."
In Iran, the parliament speaker, who has been closely involved in talks with the US, has condemned the US for the shaky ceasefire. Mohammad Ghalibaf appeared to refer to the new US initiative, Project Freedom, which is intended to enable ships to enter and exit the Strait.
UAE hopes for support from Gulf allies
The UAE hopes that its friends in the Gulf will stand by it in the event of further attacks. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman condemned Iran’s Monday attacks. He reaffirmed Riyadh’s support for the UAE. “The call came after the UAE’s Ministry of Defense intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones launched from Iran on Monday, resulting in three minor injuries,” Arab News in Riyadh reported.
The big question is now whether Iran will continue its provocations and attacks, as it has done before. Back in 2019, it attacked the Saudi port of Abqaiq with missiles. It also attacked ships in Fujairah, the same year. Iran has thus shown in the past that it is willing to attack shipping and ports. This was long before the US strikes and the ceasefire. Iran has often tried to show it can close the Strait of Hormuz and do whatever it wants. As such, the recent attacks are not necessarily a completely new strategy or tactic. but are part of a multi-decade Iranian approach going back to the 1980s.
The question for Iran is whether it thinks this will work. The US continues to blockade Iran, and Iran continues to blockade the straits. Iran assumes Washington doesn’t want more war. It also assumes that the UAE can absorb some blows. It has focused its attacks on the UAE since the February conflict began. It does not expect the UAE or Gulf countries to respond, and assumes they have more to lose than it does. They are small and rely on tourism and expats. They can’t tolerate closed airspace. Iran is a poorer, but much larger country. It has many land borders. It can absorb attacks as well. It assumes that, in the long term, with attrition, Iran will survive, that others will suffer more, and that others have more to lose.