Northern Command officers have warned that remaining in a static posture in Lebanon over time could prove dangerous for the IDF and exact a deadly price, even after a complex engineering operation on the Ali Taher Ridge ended with the destruction of terrorist infrastructure and the killing of dozens of terrorists.
According to the officers, surveillance and intelligence already show that the enemy is studying the IDF's activity, drawing lessons, and trying to operate guerrilla cells under the radar.
At this stage, the IDF has defined a "kill zone" separating territory under Israeli control from territory controlled by Hezbollah. Northern Command chief Maj.-Gen. Rafi Milo has defined the policy clearly: Anyone who enters the zone will be killed.
To enforce this, the IDF has been working in recent weeks to tighten cooperation between ground troops, the Israel Air Force, and Military Intelligence in order to improve the speed and accuracy with which targets are identified and struck.
That coordination is producing results on the ground, but the major question being raised in Northern Command is how long the current situation can be sustained, and what will happen once winter arrives with the severe weather typical of the region, which directly affects the capabilities of both ground troops and aircraft. "The Lebanese mud" is a broad term for a problem that is expected to develop soon.
Hezbollah will eventually mount a significant response to IDF presence
Northern Command officers are warning that Hezbollah will not remain indefinitely in a state of total restraint without mounting a significant response. According to assessments, the organization's senior leadership is closely awaiting developments in the Iranian arena, with everything dependent on Tehran.
At the same time, there is broad agreement within the defense establishment that this is no longer the Hezbollah that Israel knew at the beginning of the war nearly three years ago.
The organization is operating without the strong, and experienced senior leadership it once had, although Sheikh Naim Qassem, who initially appeared to be a lame-duck leader, has managed to balance the organization's various branches.
Hezbollah also no longer enjoys the enormous budget it once received with Iranian backing, nor does it possess the vast weapons arsenal, underground fortified positions, and veteran field commanders who knew every path along the northern border.
There is discontent among Hezbollah personnel over the organization's approach toward the IDF, while it also faces a major challenge in paying salaries, pensions to retirees, support for the families of "martyrs," and assistance to wounded members and dependent families.
Nevertheless, the radical Shi'ite organization must not be underestimated. According to the officers, Hezbollah is already building strength and preparing for the next stage, including through increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles and fiber-optic drones, which have proven effective in recent confrontations.
Can the IDF maintain a presence in Lebanon?
This comes against the backdrop of Hezbollah's concern that Israel's next steps could be directed toward Nabatieh, which is described as Hezbollah's Jerusalem, a "Shi'ite stronghold" where the IDF is currently limiting its activity to airstrikes in the area.
At this stage, it remains unclear whether, given the budget crisis, the IDF will have sufficient funds to prepare for winter across all arenas, with conditions in Lebanon expected to be particularly complex.
It is also unclear, given the strain on regular-service troops, whether IDF divisions are training for a renewed large-scale war and whether they have operational plans ready to be implemented at any moment. The convergence of these sensitive pressure points could become a significant disadvantage in any future confrontation.