The new defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, though far from ideal for Israel, “doesn’t shut the door completely on normalization” between Riyadh and Jerusalem, said Dr. Yoel Guzansky, head of the Gulf Research Field at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
The three Sunni-majority countries signed the defense agreement on Friday, after months of attacks from Iran and its proxies on Gulf States.
Though unclear how the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement’s actions will materialize, the member states said in a joint statement that it would strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and it stipulates that an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.
Saudi Arabia, the country hit the hardest of all three, likely joined the pact to have more leverage and options as trust in Washington is waning in the region, Guzansky said.
“Countries need stability. Saudis need stability. It’s also a sign of, let’s say, question marks over the US’s readiness and ability to assist the Gulf states,” he explained.
“The Saudis feel that they cannot count on the US – not because the US doesn’t want to, but because this administration, like almost every administration, has political, economic and military constraints and limitations. So they need more. This is hedging.”
Though there were theories that Iran’s attacks would push Gulf States to embrace Israel more closely for its defensive and technological capabilities, Guzansky said Jerusalem’s growing reputation as a “hegemon” made such an embrace difficult, particularly given the perception that Israel is engaged in “endless wars,” which is not a sign of the much-desired stability Riyadh seeks.
With Jerusalem not being viewed as a viable partner for Riyadh, Guzansky was blunt about his concerns over what it would mean for Saudi Arabia to embrace countries so openly hostile to Israel.
Israel 'threat to entire Muslim world'
“I’m worried because the Turks and Pakistanis have a really anti-Israel stance that might affect Saudi Arabia. I’m hoping that Saudi Arabia will affect them, but it would perhaps be too naive to think so,” he said.
“It will not officially be aimed at Israel, per se, but these are countries that are worried about Israel. Most of them are anti-Israel.”
Notably, only a day after the pact was announced, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told Pakistan media that there should be “a united military front” against Israel, which he described as a “threat to the entire Muslim world.”
“Their attitude towards the Palestinians and their anti-Islamic mindset will not disappear. They continue to incite Muslim countries against each other,” he said, seemingly pointing blame at Israel for the attacks from Iran on Muslim states.
Turkey views itself as a regional power
“And as long as the Palestinian issue is not permanently resolved, the Islamic world must stand against them as one.”
From Ankara’s side, Guzansky said, “The Turks see themselves as a regional power.”
“They are very sensitive to Israel and what Israel is doing. [Turkish President Tayyip] Erdogan is very negative, to say the least, towards Israel. He’s anti-Israel. He’s an antisemite,” he continued.
With rumors of other countries looking to join the pact, namely Qatar and Egypt, Guzansky warned that the outlook “doesn’t look good” for Israel, especially given Doha’s propaganda capabilities with Al Jazeera.
Guzansky theorized that the pact would be little more than diplomatic, with the possibility of sending some defensive equipment, stating that he doubted Turkey’s willingness to go to war against Iran.