The United Arab Emirates, thanks to years of anticipatory planning, is not in a position where it will need to bow to Iran’s demands to administer and charge fees for the crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, Emirati political analyst Obaid al-Zaabi told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
Zaabi, who currently works to bolster the UAE’s food security in the field of agritech innovation, spoke to the Post shortly after the Islamic Republic took a harsher stance on Hormuz, abandoning earlier propositions to split the vital waterway between Iranian and Omani control.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi on Tuesday said the entirety of the inbound shipping lane and the majority of the outbound shipping lane should be entirely under Iranian control.
Zaabi made it clear that the UAE had no intention of accepting Oman’s proposal to allow Iran control over 50% of the waterway. The three islands in the Strait of Hormuz that were taken under Iranian occupation since 1971 – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb –were reason enough to oppose the plan, he said.
“The three islands in Hormuz are our islands, and we claim them, and they killed Emirati people when they took them in 1971, so we are not okay with their policy,” he added. “We do not accept Oman’s policy.”
Gulf States can still concede to Iran's demands
Even though the UAE will refuse to pay a toll, Zaabi acknowledged that there is a chance other Gulf states will concede to Iran, hoping to avoid conflict and lacking any real leverage to challenge it. As a global re-export powerhouse, the UAE’s ability to ship items to and from Iran makes the country too valuable to restrict, he said.
“The truth is, they need us,” he added. “They don’t have a big port that can handle the kind of port work that Dubai does. They do not have legal trading ability with other countries, so they are heavily reliant on the UAE’s infrastructure for themselves.”
The UAE’s diversified economy is more resilient than those of many other Gulf states, especially since it has multiple ports, energy sources, and pipelines, Zaabi said. That allows Abu Dhabi to withstand more Iranian pressure than other regional players, such as Qatar, which is largely dependent on natural-gas reserves and liquefied natural gas, he said.
Those extra securities and technological investments have also meant that the UAE can avoid the extreme inflation being experienced by other regional actors, including Iran, Zaabi said. Although by no means sustainable forever, this has made the Emiratis stronger in “a mutually hurting stalemate,” he said.
Countries such Saudi Arabia, Zaabi said, “aggressively pursued de-escalation,” are also more likely to find themselves the target of Iranian drones and missiles and the attacks of Iran’s proxies, because Tehran’s strategy is to create that sense of volatility that will lead Gulf states to pressure the United States to concede for the sake of quiet.
“The UAE did not seek de-escalation,” he said. “Instead, it adopted a tit-for-tat approach. If they hit us, we hit them back. When they escalated, we were willing to match that escalation. If they attack our infrastructure, we will attack theirs.”
“Since Iran chose to target us, the UAE has been an active participant in the conflict,” he added. “We have withheld their funds, taken part in the blockade, and remain actively engaged in fighting them... As far as I understood, they have stopped attacking us because they know any attack against us will be reciprocated with massive force.”
UAE reportedly struck Iran, relations are now strained
The UAE has participated in dozens of strikes against Iran, which was said to have strained relations among Gulf states, The Wall Street Journal reported in May.
Until the now-defunct memorandum of understanding was signed in April, Tehran fired some 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones at the UAE, according to Emirati data in May.
Although a heavy target at the beginning of the war, it seems the UAE has been attacked with the same level of fire as before since July 13, when two oil tankers were struck off the eastern coast near Khor Fakkan.
The mentality of seeking de-escalation has also allowed the issue of Iran’s proxy network to grow unchecked and unchallenged, Zaabi said.
“The Saudi goal of being neutral and de-escalating has not helped them,” he said, citing the recent attacks from Iran-backed Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis.
Riyadh has now joined the US in attacking the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces, striking “multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours,” US Central Command reported.
It is yet unclear how Riyadh will respond to the Houthis’ blockade, although Zaabi said such an outcome could have been avoided had Saudi Arabia not pressured Abu Dhabi to withdraw from Yemen last year.
“When it came to the threat posed by the proxies, the UAE wanted to continue the war against the Houthis,” he said. “We did not feel comfortable having an Iranian proxy in our backyard while facing a belligerent Iran.”
“The Saudis wanted to end it,” he added. “We had built up a substantial force in Yemen to counter the Houthis, but the Saudis asked us to dismantle that force. In my opinion, ignoring the proxies has been a grave policy error. It has led to a situation where groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are actively working against you in a wartime scenario.”
Last December, the UAE Defense Ministry said it had voluntarily ended the mission of its counterterrorism units in Yemen. Saudi Arabia had given the UAE 24 hours’ notice to vacate the only Emirati forces still there after it withdrew in 2019.
“I don’t know what the solution is, because if a group of ragtag terrorists can hold the global economy under threat, it’s a dangerous situation,” Zaabi said. “I think there are more options on the table... I think the problem is that if everyone escalates, things will get very bad, very quickly.”
“Now Russia also seems to be getting pulled into the war, with Ukraine attacking Iranian ships,” he said. “There is a very real risk. I think everyone is more concerned about uncontrolled escalation right now than winning, which in and of itself is very worrisome.”