The US administration believes the chances of advancing normalization between Israel and Syria before Israel's upcoming elections are "very slim," a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post.
According to the source, the Syrian government's core demand is for Israel to carry out some form of withdrawal from the buffer zone it entered following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. US officials assess that this will make meaningful progress extremely difficult, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to approve any withdrawal from the buffer zone ahead of the October elections
Defense Minister Israel Katz told reporters on Monday that Israel intends to remain in the areas it entered in Syria. "I informed the commander of US Central Command, Admiral Cooper, that we will not withdraw from the security zone in Syria," Katz said.
The buffer zone was created after the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Israel and Syria following the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024, Israel argued that the agreement could no longer be fully implemented because the Syrian state was no longer capable of enforcing its obligations under the accord.
Israeli forces subsequently moved into parts of the UN-monitored buffer zone and several adjacent strategic positions, describing the move as a temporary security measure to prevent hostile actors from exploiting the power vacuum.
Syria's new government and much of the international community have maintained that the 1974 agreement remains legally valid and have called for Israel's withdrawal from the buffer zone and a return to the pre-collapse arrangements.
Over the past year, several meetings have taken place between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, then-strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer, and Israel's Ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter.
Security pact relies on buffer zone renewal, Syrian officials say
The talks were mediated by the United States and led by Tom Barrack, President Trump's special envoy for Syria. In all the meetings, Syrian officials said that any security pact and the advance of normalization depend on the renewal of the 1974 buffer zone agreement.
The most recent meeting between the Syrian foreign minister and the Israeli ambassador marked significant progress. The discussions also included a series of potential economic and civilian cooperation projects between the two countries, such as a joint ski resort spanning the Syrian and Israeli sides of Mount Hermon, involving Druze communities in both countries.
On Monday, during a state visit to Romania, President Isaac Herzog declared: "We seek peace with Syria and the opening of a new chapter between our nations."
In recent weeks, President Trump has repeatedly stated that he would like Syria to play a role in the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon, an idea that has been rejected by Israel, Lebanon, and Syria alike.
"We have a deep problem with Hezbollah, but we do not want all of Lebanon to die," al-Sharaa said. According to him, "Lebanon cannot remain trapped between the alternatives of civil war and war with Israel. Lebanon's Shiite community needs calm, not more fear and confrontation."