The economic consequences of Hezbollah’s decision to drag Lebanon into another war on behalf of Iran have the terrorist group’s Shi’ite supporters increasingly looking for ideological alternatives, according to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC).
Still recovering from the cost of Hezbollah’s decision to attack Israel the day after the October 7 massacre in support of its terrorist ally Hamas, confidence in Hezbollah’s ability to pay the cumulative cost of damage is quickly dampening, and some of its supporters are beginning to look for political alternatives.
Many want to see a group emerge that is loyal to Beirut and seeks to reduce Iran’s control over Lebanon, although such desires have yet to materialize into a real alternative, the ITIC said in a report.
The Forum of Shi’ite Lebanese, established in June 2025, has emerged as a potential future alternative. It emphasizes the need to return the powers of security, war, and peace to the Lebanese state, strengthen the Lebanese army, and establish a broad national partnership of all components of Lebanese society. The group has advocated for positive, but not subordinate, relations with Iran.
A 'standstill' in Lebanon
There was still a standstill in Lebanon, especially given Iran’s recent success in negotiations with the United States, according to Lt.-Col. (res.) Dr. Moran Levavoni, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.
“We are in a sort of a standstill,” he told The Jerusalem Post. “While Hezbollah supporters are celebrating the victory of Iran, and especially the approval of [US President Donald] Trump to the Iranian victory and patronage over Lebanon, its opponents are very strict with the notion that they don’t want to have Iranian sovereignty over Lebanon.”
During negotiations, Iran said it expected a ceasefire on all fronts, including Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its deal with Washington came as Beirut negotiated its own agreement with Israel through US mediation, a course of action that had Hezbollah threatening civil war.
Jerusalem agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah on Friday. The terrorist group violated the ceasefire on Friday and Saturday by launching waves of attacks against IDF troops in southern Lebanon. One soldier was killed, and 13 were wounded.
In response to Hezbollah’s violations, the IDF killed Hezbollah terrorists and attacked terrorist infrastructure. More than 80 people were killed, the Lebanese Health Ministry reported.
Lebanese civilians have often been forced to pay the price for Hezbollah’s actions, the ITIC said in its report. Between October 8, 2023, and November 27, 2024, more than 3,700 were killed, and about 30% of them were women and children.
Although the majority of those killed were believed to be Hezbollah operatives, nearly 900,000 people were displaced, the overwhelming majority from Lebanon’s Shi’ite areas, the report said. During the latest round of hostilities, about 20% of Lebanon’s population has been internally displaced, according to UN figures.
The reality of the financial consequences has left Hezbollah’s economic arm struggling to compensate those impacted by its actions, the ITIC reported. International sanctions and Israeli attacks have weakened Hezbollah’s ability to provide support.
Hezbollah’s support base forced to return to conflict zones
Lebanese reports suggest that civilians in Hezbollah’s support base who have been forced to return to conflict zones are no longer able to pay the price of relocation. A poll by Statistics Lebanon showed the economy remains Lebanon’s deepest concern, and a poll by the International Information Company found that about 49% of the respondents want a peace agreement with Israel, an increase of 24% from the year prior.
“The continuing deterioration in living conditions and the economic resilience of families, most of whom have still not recovered from the consequences of the war in support for the Gaza Strip, is increasing frustration and the erosion or trust, and is fertile ground for the growing criticism of the conflict and the price Lebanese society in general, and the Shi’ite community in particular, are required to pay,” the ITIC reported.
Those in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, Hezbollah’s stronghold, who were finally able to return home were forced to flee again in early June, creating a sense of psychological exhaustion, and numerous families have begun to accept that they cannot provide a stable future for their children in these communities, the report said.
The impact on the displaced generation would be felt in the children’s social identities, creating a gap between ideological narratives and the harsh reality they live in, according to Lebanese journalist Nancy al-Laqis.
Highlighting this fall from grace was Hezbollah’s failed Beirut rally in May. A body affiliated with the group managed to gather only dozens of Hezbollah supporters, while previous demonstrations had thousands in attendance.
Furthermore, last month, Hezbollah quietly allowed entry of the Lebanese army for enforcement activity in the heart of Dahiyeh. Hezbollah did not confront the move because of growing public sensitivity, London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported.
How the deal will impact Hezbollah is still not known, but the consequences of months of displacement and years of instability will likely continue for many Lebanese despite what has been largely viewed as an Iranian victory.