Israel continues to inch closer to elections. The Knesset Plenum approved the first reading of a Bill for the Dissolution of the Twenty-Fifth Knesset on Tuesday.
The Knesset website noted that “in the vote, 106 members of Knesset supported the bill, without opposing votes or abstentions, and it will be returned to the House Committee for further deliberation.”
The proposal would see Israel go toward elections sometime between September 8, 2026, and October 20, 2026. The UAE’s Al-Ain News described Israel as being in “turmoil.”
One could argue that this depiction is only due to the Arabic-language article being reprinted from various agencies. It isn’t original reporting.
However, not every news agency report is reprinted on the home page. It’s a choice. It tells readers that there could be turmoil in Jerusalem.
This perception matters in the region. If Israel is seen as being indecisive and in turmoil over the summer months, it could feed various shifts in the region. Countries that are friends with Israel may take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to various issues.
Countries that are more hostile may try to exploit the period. Terrorist groups may consider exploitation, but they could also recognize that Israel’s leadership will be less constrained and may want an excuse to deal them a heavy blow.
Regional states will closely watch Jerusalem
This leaves many questions. The UAE and Bahrain, both signatories to the Abraham Accords, may be watching closely what happens. They have warm ties with Israel, but the ties could be warmer.
Many countries that want ties with Israel, or already have them, likely prefer a government in Jerusalem that is more moderate. That means one that has fewer extreme and hostile voices.
It means a government that seems to have a long-term policy, rather than changing its policies quickly.
The Al-Ain report noted that “the bill [to dissolve the Knesset] comes at a time when [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is facing increasing pressure from ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, amid signs that his right-wing coalition may collapse.”
It added that “the ultra-Orthodox parties accuse Netanyahu of failing to fulfill his promise to pass legislation exempting young men belonging to them and enrolled in Jewish religious schools from mandatory military service. Netanyahu, 76, has been prime minister of Israel for more than 18 years since 1996 and is seeking a new term despite facing legal challenges over corruption allegations.”
The report also includes the following sentence: “Many Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for the security failure that allowed Hamas’s unprecedented attack on October 7, 2023.”
This line is likely taken from a news agency analysis. It doesn’t reflect the view in the Gulf, necessarily. However, these countries will be watching Israel’s complex and sometimes chaotic democracy closely.
Oct. 7 attacks cast shadow on region
While some countries in the region prefer stability, they also feel that Israel’s long-term one-person leadership hasn’t brought much stability. This is clear from the decline in various initiatives that sought to build on the Abraham Accords.
The Negev Forum, I2U2, the N7 Initiative, and other regional frameworks have received less spotlight in recent years. The Hamas October 7 attack and the wars that followed have cast a shadow on the region.
Israel is still fighting Hezbollah and considering a new offensive against Hamas. Regional countries likely don’t want to see more war.
The countries being pressured to join the Abraham Accords also want to see progress toward a Palestinian state, or at least toward Palestinian rights. This means they will closely watch which parties are on the rise in Jerusalem in the next few months.
If extremism takes place in Jerusalem or extremist parties exploit the elections to sow discord and violence, it could lead to a crisis.
If there is a new conflict in Gaza, it could also sow a crisis. Meanwhile, countries like Turkey will seek to show that they are anchors of stability in the region, even if the reality does not reflect this.