Mali, in northern Africa, has seen an unprecedented advance by armed groups in recent days. One of the groups, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), is considered a jihadist organization.
Another group, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), is considered a group seeking an independent region or state for the Tuareg people. The groups have attacked cities in northern Mali, and the country has seen massive setbacks as its officials have been killed and Russian mercenaries have fled.
The context here is important. Mali is a large country that spans the Sahel region, connecting sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa. It is the eighth-largest country in Africa.
It borders Algeria, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Liberia, and Burkina Faso, among other states. As such, what happens in Mali tends to spill over into other areas that span the Sahel. This means that the current advances by various groups could lead to more destabilization in Africa.
Africa matters more in the world for a variety of reasons. One reason is the ongoing wars in other areas, such as Sudan. In addition, countries such as Israel are increasingly interested in outreach to Somaliland, which has led to a greater focus on the Red Sea region.
Many countries are seeking influence. China, Turkey, Russia, and others are investing and, in some cases, seeking a military role. This means Mali is not a lone country fighting a lonely war. It is part of a larger fabric.
Countries near Mali are key to regional security
Some of the countries bordering or near Mali are key to regional security. Senegal, for instance, has often been a key regional actor in West Africa. Some of these countries also do joint training with the US. Morocco, another important state in North Africa, is a key to the region.
Mali and its neighbors have had coups in recent years. Mali had two coups between 2020 and 2021, points out Pawel Wajcik, who posts under the X handle @SaladinAlDronni. He also noted that Burkina Faso experienced a coup in 2022 and Niger in the summer of 2023.
He writes that “events in Mali we are witnessing today are a part of an escalating in size and power struggle, that is not all bound to Mali. While it certainly started here, since it originates from AQIM/Ansar al Din [two extremist groups]…It has, since 2015, spread beyond Mali. Both al-Qaeda affiliates and later, Islamic State, expanded from Mali to Burkina Faso and Niger.”
He goes on to say that “at the time, both countries still had a significant French and in Niger case, French and American presence.”
The coups in these countries led France to end its role in places like Mali. Jihadist, extremist, and ethnic armed groups began to rise. Russia was invited in by the coup leaders to help fight.
The countries sought to form a joint force to coordinate efforts under Burkina Faso General Daouda Traoré, who was appointed to head it, with a command base in Niamey, Niger's capital. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger also sought to withdraw from ECOWAS, a key economic union of regional states.
The failure of these efforts by these states is now clear. Mali’s defense minister was killed in an attack over the weekend. In northern Mali, Russian mercenaries have withdrawn after failing to stem the tide of JNIM and FLA's advance.
Al-Ain media in the UAE says that “political experts believe that Mali is entering a very dangerous phase with an unprecedented escalation in armed attacks and the involvement of local and international parties in the conflict.”
The report says that the attacks could lead to “large-scale security breakdown across the entire Sahel region, especially after the assassination of the Malian defense minister.”
It argued that “the Malian defense minister, one of the most prominent leaders of the ruling military council since 2020, was killed in the attack on his residence on Saturday, carried out by a group linked to al-Qaeda in the Sahel region, according to the French newspaper Le Figaro on Sunday, citing his family, government and military sources.”
A researcher named Nikagali Bagayoka told Al-Ain News, “that what is happening in Mali is not just a security escalation, but a redrawing of the geopolitical map in the Sahel. Bagayoka explained that the killing of the defense minister represents a major shock within the structure of the military regime in Mali, especially since the ruling institution, since 2020, relies on a narrow network of security and military leaders.”
Now, Al-Ain says that “the situation in Mali is becoming increasingly complex, with escalating military operations and the involvement of local and international powers, placing the country at a pivotal stage that could determine the future of stability in the entire Sahel region.”
Further, “clashes broke out again in the northern city during the same day, and new confrontations erupted in Kati, the military city near the capital, Bamako. A Tuareg rebel leader explained to the French television channel TV5 Monde that ‘an agreement has been reached allowing the army and its allies from the African Legion to leave Camp 2, where they had been holed up since Saturday.’ He added that the northern city was now "completely under the control" of the Azawad National Liberation Front.
This is now seen by some analysts quoted at Al-Ain as the worst crisis since 2012 in this region of Africa. The overall concern is that numerous other terrorist and jihadist groups in the area, some with links going back to Al Qaeda and ISIS, will benefit and could surge into other states.