Next Israeli gov't main issue will be controlling defense budget, Bank Hapoalim CEO told conference

Speaking at EY’s annual real estate conference, held in cooperation with Steinmetz, Gurman, Erdman & Co., Antebi presented a broad picture of Israel’s economy during the war and the state of the real estate sector.

“The Israeli economy entered the war on October 7 at its peak, from a very strong starting point, characterized by low unemployment and low inflation, alongside a low leverage rate in both the private sector and the public,” Antebi said.

“These opening conditions gave the economy the air it needed to operate even under the challenges of wartime routine,” he said.

“We have always known Israeli entrepreneurship and the ability to maintain routine during war, but during the war we all rediscovered its strength, and the ability to maintain both a wartime routine and a business routine,” he said. “At the beginning of the war, businesses recovered relatively quickly, and within two or three months the economy had almost returned to regular functioning.”

Antebi said the next government’s budget decisions would be shaped first and foremost by defense spending.

“It is clear that the central challenge of the next government, when it wants to build the budget, among the other challenges it will need to deal with, is first of all control over the defense budget,” he said. “The size of the defense budget will very much determine the standard of living of the Israeli public in the coming years.”

At the same time, Antebi said Israel’s current macroeconomic picture looked less favorable than it did several months ago, at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion.

“I do not want to say ‘a new Middle East,’ but there were expectations here that the situation would look different, with a different economic and geopolitical equilibrium,” he said. “That did not happen, and as it currently appears, it is also not happening.”

“As a bank that has existed for more than 100 years, we have customers in every sector, and we have constantly seen many ups and downs in the different sectors,” he said. “For example, the defense industries were almost uninteresting until a few years ago, and today they are one of the most interesting industries. In every field, including real estate, there are always ups and downs.”

“In our worldview as a bank, we are with you, with all the entrepreneurs, in the good periods and in the less good periods,” he added.

Addressing the financial stability of real estate companies, Antebi said bank financial reports showed that specific loan-loss provisions had remained at very low levels for several quarters.

He said this reflected the condition of the sector, even amid slower sales, higher construction input costs and high interest rates.

“Despite the difficulties, the decline in sales, the rise in construction inputs and the high interest rate, things look really good,” he said.

Antebi pointed to infrastructure, data centers and hospitality as areas of opportunity in the coming years.

On infrastructure, he said projects would continue regardless of which government was in power.

“It does not matter which government will be here in the next 25 years, infrastructure projects will move forward: public transportation, trains, bridges. These are projects that will continue to accompany us in the coming years,” he said.

On data centers, Antebi said Israel was expected to see major development in the field.

“Dozens of data centers will be built in Israel in the coming years, and we are looking at this with full attention,” he said.

Antebi also highlighted the hotel sector as a sign of long-term confidence in Israel, despite the current decline in tourism and flight cancellations by international airlines.

“The number of entrepreneurs approaching us to establish new hotels in Israel because they are looking ahead is amazing,” he said. “This is the basis of the Israeli ethos of creation and our optimism. What we finance today is what will produce the apartments, the offices and the hotel rooms in four and five years.”

Clara Zwergel, head of the real estate sector in Bank Hapoalim’s Corporate Division, presented the bank’s perspective from its work with developers, saying that despite the current slowdown, entrepreneurs were constantly reinventing themselves through project types, financing structures and other tools.

Addressing the office real estate sector, Zwergel compared current predictions of decline to past forecasts about shopping centers and office space.

“When the world of e-commerce began to develop, many people eulogized shopping centers, but we see that customers are still looking for the purchasing experience, and not only the products themselves,” she said. “The world of commerce adapted to the new trend and changed its face.”

She said similar claims were made about office space during the COVID-19 pandemic, when many companies believed they would no longer need physical offices.

“In recent years, we have seen in the world and in Israel the opposite trend of returning to offices, as companies understand that there is no substitute for office work and employee interaction,” Zwergel said.

Zwergel also called on authorities to promote the conversion of older office buildings into residential buildings, citing the difficulty of adapting older office buildings to green building standards.

“There is also a global trend requiring large international companies to ensure that their office buildings meet green standards,” she said. “Certainly all new buildings in Israel meet these standards, but it is difficult to convert old office buildings to meet green standards. Therefore, I am using this platform to call on the authorities to advance the conversion of old office buildings into residential buildings. This will benefit all sides.”